Yesterday I went to pick up a long awaited package from the post office. It was mistakenly sent to a location two hours from me, then sent back to the central processing center, then finally arrived back in my area.

It wasn’t fun or easy dealing with Amazon regarding this order, and I wondered if I was going to have to accept the package was lost, along with my money. I was relieved when I finally got the notice it arrived.

I had wanted to order two of this item (it was a set of five toy cars, a gift to be split for children and grandchildren), but waited to confirm that first package made it before buying another one. After picking it up, I logged on to order a second set, to see the following message:

“Currently unavailable. We don’t know if or when this item will be back in stock.”

I checked other sellers – one other seller had it for close to fifty dollars – for an item that five weeks ago cost $22.

I kept looking. I found the same toy cars being sold individually for $11 each (totaling $55 instead of $22). That’s a serious price increase. And my item isn’t the exception – I was notified that a different toy I was considering buying went up over 30% a week or two after I put it in my cart. The prices have risen significantly on many items that I looked at.

I’ve been watching the worldwide economy pretty closely for a number of months so this wasn’t a surprise to me – it was more of a question of when than if.

In the beginning of August when I wrote my sheepdog post, I referenced having concerns that I wasn’t able to share about. When you’re too early to talk about something, people think you’re crazy or paranoid, and it’s not always a blessing that I tend to accurately anticipate things on the horizon before a lot of people. Actually, it’s quite challenging.

I’ve been waiting months for the mainstream media to write about this inflation issue so I can say something to you, so that you can take steps to prepare yourselves. Now that they’re finally writing about the price increases and the serious supply chain issues, they’re still doing their best to minimize it and keep people in the dark.

My understanding is that we are in an inflationary period, which – according to the theory that makes the most sense to me – will be followed by a deflationary period, and then a more rapid inflationary period. I don’t pretend to predict the future, I’m not an economist, I’m not giving you financial advice – I’m sharing my understanding of what the indicators seem to be. So obviously I could be completely wrong and if I am, no one will be happier than me.

Though back in June US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the inflation was “transitory“, it was pretty obvious to those of us paying attention that it wasn’t. I was disgusted then at the efforts to hide from the population what was happening, and I continue to be very concerned about being lied to and manipulated. Yes, strong terms and you’re welcome to think I’m exaggerating. I’d rather think I’m exaggerating. Looking at unpleasant facts isn’t fun. History will show retroactively what isn’t obvious to many right now.

This isn’t going to be a small blip on the economic scene, despite the media effort to minimize or explain away the issues. They don’t want a panic and they’re not telling you the truth about the severity of what is underway. They waited as long as they possibly could to even begin to mention the financial crisis developing, and are going to break it to you slowly, so you get used to the idea bit by bit.

I’ve lived on a budget for years and so do many of you. If we were to experience significant price increases in products, food, housing or energy (different parts of the world are seeing increases at different times), that would affect many people. Will that happen? It’s happening across the world right now.

Blessedly, Israel seems to be on the later side of the curve to be affected the the downward economic cycle. I pray we will continue to be minimally affected but the global economy is interconnected, and something major that affects one country inevitably affects the others.

Am I fear mongering, or telling you to panic? Absolutely not. I’m concerned, but I’m not panicking, and neither should you. Wherever you live, and whatever your income, there are things you can do to minimize the impact of increased living expenses on your family. But doing that means you’re going to have to be willing to consider some uncomfortable possibilities rather than hide your heads in the sand (which in the short term is really much more comforting).

One practical suggestion for right now: if there’s something you need or want that is of practical value to your family and you have the resources to purchase it, now’s a good time to buy it.

Going back to that cycle (inflation-deflation-rapid inflation), deflation is when prices fall because rising prices (inflation) have caused people to cut their extraneous spending. If we experience deflation, prices will go down on the things people can live without. (Yes, like toys!) However, it’s unlikely that prices on critical items go down.

The material costs are dramatically shooting up – metals, cardboard, plastics – and that impacts the price for you as the buyer. It also impacts what continues to be manufactured. As with my toy purchase above, some things will no longer be available because the company has decided it’s no longer profitable to make them.

The most important things you can do now are pray, and visualize our world stabilizing and healing. On the physical plane, I’m going to be talking more about frugality since taking responsibility for your personal economy is more important than ever.

Avivah