I wrote the following on November 8, 2021, but finally decided not to post it because I felt it was too soon to talk about this. Instead, I chose to share information about how to budget for food, buy in bulk, find pantry space and repurpose leftovers, knowing this would be helpful information to anyone wanting to stretch their food budget for whatever reason.

>>You can’t imagine how many times I’ve written and rewritten this post, deleting and deleting and rewriting again! My dilemma is I don’t want to cause anyone anxiety or alarm, but at the same time, I want your family to have what it needs.

I’ve deleted all my commentary and explanation about the reasons this will happen, and I’m going to get right into it.

Food prices are anticipated to rise sharply in coming months. There is a lot of talk behind the scenes about food shortages.

Most of you live in countries where this seems preposterous, but some of you are beginning to see shortages. There is a complex web of factors leading to this situation worldwide and as fascinating a topic as this is, I’m not going to talk about why and how this is happening. I’m going to focus on what to do about it.

First of all, now is the time to be as conservative as possible in your spending. Please think about what foods you use, and buy a bit more of them each time you shop. Don’t panic, don’t go into hoarding mode, don’t get afraid.<<

Today I’m going to talk more directly about this issue. Thankfully, here in Israel our prices are remaining steady and I’m not seeing unusual shortages. That’s not to say that caution isn’t in order, because worldwide inflation and supply chain forces will eventually affect us all.

For my US readers: please take this seriously! US groceries have shot up significantly and will continue to rise. Many, many areas are seeing serious supply issues, with significant sections of the supermarkets empty. They are being explained as being caused by a shortage of workers due to the O variant, and some areas having winter storms and people panic buying as a result. That is definitely a factor but if you think that’s all that is happening, you’re going to be lulled by a false sense that this is a short term issue that will be resolved in a week or two. It’s not.

Some news outlets are beginning to talk about this being a long term issue. Finally!!

I’ve looked at lots of pictures and descriptions of what is in short supply or missing. It varies from store to store, obviously, but here are the things that are pretty consistent:

• dairy products
• eggs
• meat and chicken, sliced sandwich meat
• frozen processed foods, ready to eat meals
• bottled juice, some sodas
• fresh produce
• bread
• pastas
• pet food (specifically for cats and dogs)

If something isn’t on this list, it doesn’t mean some places aren’t experiencing shortages of that. But this list seems to be accurate for the majority of places. It seems red states were the first affected, but the blue states are also being affected now. The bigger cities and wealthier areas are the last to be affected.

People in the affected areas are getting increasingly alarmed to see the combination of price increases and empty shelves when they go to their stores. In American there has always been an abundance of food at low prices, and people assume it will always be like that, so this is understandably disorienting for shoppers.

What if you’re in an area that doesn’t have any gaps at all (and there are still many places like that)? Should you ignore this and think that this doesn’t apply to you?

NO!!!!

You’re the best positioned right now to heed this warning. What is happening in other states will affect you eventually. You are so fortunate to be able to buy some food insurance for yourself, to easily stock your pantry before there are any shortages. A relaxed guideline at this point is to get at least a month’s worth of staples.

To make the empty shelves less noticeable, supermarkets are reorganizing their spaces, taking out shelving and moving it around, fronting the empty shelves with one or two of the items (nothing behind them), filling empty spaces with foods that there is a lot of. For example, one baking aisle pictured had many shelves of white sugar. I’m seeing some people reporting that the expiration dates on canned goods is much shorter than usual. And now there are beginning to be limits on how many of each item you can buy.

What I don’t see in short supply yet are the things that make up the bulk of my meals. Good, old fashioned staples. Ingredients that you need to know how to cook to turn into a meal. 🙂 It’s not a coincidence that these are the last things to be sold! For many people, cooking doesn’t go much beyond heating up ready-made food, and they have no idea what to do with these ingredients.

If you’ve ever read pioneer stories, their big shopping trips would be something like: a barrel of flour, a barrel of beans, a sack of cornmeal, some molasses and a little salt. They’d supplement with their gardens and hunting, and those would be their groceries for months.

Well, that’s not a bad way to think with what’s going on. Personally, I wouldn’t tell anyone to buy extra frozen pizzas or pop tarts, though if you want to get additional meat/chicken and frozen vegetables, it’s a good idea. Think about the most basic foods, ingredients that can be bought inexpensively, stored in a small amount of space, and have a long shelf life. White rice, legumes, flour, sugar, canned goods, peanut butter.

Fortunately, these are also the foods that are most frugal! Many, many people shop for just the week, or even just a couple of days at a time. That’s not a prudent approach right now. I’m suggesting that when you do your shopping, you get additional staple foods.

When you’re doing your shopping, please be kind to the staff. They are the brunt of the frustrations for many shoppers, which besides being wrong, is unfair since they bear absolutely no responsibility for this situation. People are so stressed and this is adding to the ramped up anxiety, so bring your own positive, calm energy with you, so you can spread some good vibes.

One more suggestion – buying local is always a good thing! If you can buy directly from a farmer, that’s a great option. (When I was in the US, I made a trip to Pennsylvania every month or two, and bought my milk and eggs directly from the farmer.) You can get good prices and directly support those who are producing foods you enjoy.

As always, if you have a question, or comment about what you’re seeing in your area, please share in the comment section!

Avivah